Single poll

INSA poll of 13 August 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
9 to 12 Aug 2024
Respondents
2,008
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.5%-0.5
  • AfD18.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%-1.0
  • Grüne10.5%+0.5
  • BSW9.5%+0.5
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others8.5%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 10 Aug 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.5%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 9 to 12 Aug 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 10 Aug 2024, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.7 points lower and BSW 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 13 Aug 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.7average 12.2
  • BSW +1.6average 7.9
  • AfD +1.1average 16.9
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 31.0
  • SPD +0.1average 14.9
  • FDP -0.1average 5.1
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 217 seatsAfD: 128 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 75 seatsBSW: 67 seatsFDP: 36 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU217
  • AfD128
  • SPD107
  • Grüne75
  • BSW67
  • FDP36
  • CDU/CSU + AfD345 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD324 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP328 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP320 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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