INSA poll of 21 May 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 21 May 2024
- Respondents
- 2,010
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%±0
- AfD17.0%±0
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne12.5%+0.5
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others6.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 May 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 2,010 people were surveyed from 17 to 21 May 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 May 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.4average 13.9
- BSW +1.1average 5.9
- CDU/CSU -0.7average 30.7
- Freie Wähler +0.5average 2.5
- Linke -0.4average 3.4
- SPD +0.3average 15.7
- AfD +0.2average 16.8
- FDP ±0average 5.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU216
- AfD123
- SPD115
- Grüne90
- BSW50
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD331 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP342 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne328 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.