Single poll

INSA poll of 24 March 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
18 to 22 Mar 2024
Respondents
1,204
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%+0.5
  • AfD19.0%-0.5
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Grüne13.0%+1.0
  • BSW6.0%-0.5
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%-0.5
  • Freie Wähler2.0%-0.5
  • Others6.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 Mar 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,204 people were surveyed from 18 to 22 Mar 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 Mar 2024, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 24 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.4average 17.6
  • Grüne -0.8average 13.8
  • FDP +0.6average 4.4
  • Freie Wähler -0.5average 2.5
  • CDU/CSU -0.4average 30.4
  • SPD -0.1average 16.1
  • BSW +0.1average 5.9
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 213 seatsAfD: 135 seatsSPD: 113 seatsGrüne: 92 seatsBSW: 42 seatsFDP: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU213
  • AfD135
  • SPD113
  • Grüne92
  • BSW42
  • FDP35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD348 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD326 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP340 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne340 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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