INSA poll of 31 July 2023 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 28 to 31 Jul 2023
- Respondents
- 2,003
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU26.5%+0.5
- AfD21.5%-0.5
- SPD18.5%+0.5
- Grüne14.0%±0
- FDP6.5%-0.5
- Linke5.0%±0
- Others8.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Jul 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.5%, followed by AfD on 21.5%. 2,003 people were surveyed from 28 to 31 Jul 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Jul 2023, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 31 Jul 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.4average 20.1
- Grüne -0.6average 14.6
- CDU/CSU -0.4average 26.9
- Linke +0.3average 4.7
- SPD +0.2average 18.3
- FDP -0.2average 6.7
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU181
- AfD147
- SPD127
- Grüne96
- FDP45
- Linke34
- CDU/CSU + AfD328 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne404 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke342 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP322 of 630
- AfD + SPD + FDP319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.