Forsa poll of 5 March 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- RTL / n-tv
- Fieldwork period
- 27 Feb 2024 to 4 Mar 2024
- Respondents
- 2,506
- Method
- Telefonisch
- CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
- AfD17.0%±0
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne14.0%-1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- BSW4.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others8.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 27 Feb 2024.
In this poll Forsa has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 2,506 people were surveyed from 27 Feb 2024 to 4 Mar 2024, method Telefonisch, commissioned by RTL / n-tv.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 27 Feb 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has BSW 2.5 points lower and AfD 2.1 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW -2.5average 6.5
- AfD -2.1average 19.1
- CDU/CSU +0.7average 30.3
- Grüne +0.7average 13.3
- Freie Wähler +0.4average 2.6
- FDP +0.3average 4.7
- SPD -0.1average 15.1
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU238
- AfD131
- SPD115
- Grüne108
- FDP38
- CDU/CSU + AfD369 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne346 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne354 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.