Single poll

Forsa poll of 1 January 2019 for the Brandenburg state election

Commissioned by
Märkische Allgemeine
Fieldwork period
17 to 20 Dec 2018
Respondents
1,005
Method
Telefonisch
  • SPD20.0%-5.0
  • AfD20.0%+2.0
  • CDU19.0%-3.0
  • Linke17.0%-1.0
  • Grüne12.0%+6.0
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Others7.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 10 Nov 2017.

In this poll Forsa has SPD ahead on 20.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 17 to 20 Dec 2018, method Telefonisch, commissioned by Märkische Allgemeine.

Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 10 Nov 2017, Grüne gains 6.0 points, SPD loses 5.0 points, CDU loses 3.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has Grüne 4.5 points higher and SPD 3.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne +4.5average 7.5
  • SPD -3.0average 23.0
  • AfD -2.0average 22.0
  • CDU -0.5average 19.5
  • Linke -0.5average 17.5
  • FDP ±0average 5.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.

SPD: 19 seatsAfD: 19 seatsCDU: 18 seatsLinke: 16 seatsGrüne: 11 seatsFDP: 5 seatsMajority from 4588of 88 seats
  • SPD19
  • AfD19
  • CDU18
  • Linke16
  • Grüne11
  • FDP5
  • SPD + AfD + CDU56 of 88
  • SPD + AfD + Linke54 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + Linke53 of 88
  • AfD + CDU + Linke53 of 88
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne49 of 88
  • SPD + CDU + Grüne48 of 88
  • AfD + CDU + Grüne48 of 88
  • SPD + Linke + Grüne46 of 88
  • AfD + Linke + Grüne46 of 88
  • CDU + Linke + Grüne45 of 88
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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