Forsa poll of 1 January 2019 for the Brandenburg state election
- Commissioned by
- Märkische Allgemeine
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 20 Dec 2018
- Respondents
- 1,005
- Method
- Telefonisch
- SPD20.0%-5.0
- AfD20.0%+2.0
- CDU19.0%-3.0
- Linke17.0%-1.0
- Grüne12.0%+6.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Others7.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous Forsa poll of 10 Nov 2017.
In this poll Forsa has SPD ahead on 20.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,005 people were surveyed from 17 to 20 Dec 2018, method Telefonisch, commissioned by Märkische Allgemeine.
Compared with the previous Forsa poll of 10 Nov 2017, Grüne gains 6.0 points, SPD loses 5.0 points, CDU loses 3.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, Forsa has Grüne 4.5 points higher and SPD 3.0 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Jan 2019. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne +4.5average 7.5
- SPD -3.0average 23.0
- AfD -2.0average 22.0
- CDU -0.5average 19.5
- Linke -0.5average 17.5
- FDP ±0average 5.0
Seat projection from this poll
88 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency and for lists of the Sorbian minority.
- SPD19
- AfD19
- CDU18
- Linke16
- Grüne11
- FDP5
- SPD + AfD + CDU56 of 88
- SPD + AfD + Linke54 of 88
- SPD + CDU + Linke53 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Linke53 of 88
- SPD + AfD + Grüne49 of 88
- SPD + CDU + Grüne48 of 88
- AfD + CDU + Grüne48 of 88
- SPD + Linke + Grüne46 of 88
- AfD + Linke + Grüne46 of 88
- CDU + Linke + Grüne45 of 88
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.