Single poll

INSA poll of 14 January 2026 for the Berlin state election

Commissioned by
NIUS
Fieldwork period
7 to 14 Jan 2026
Respondents
1,000
Method
Online
  • CDU22.0%-1.0
  • SPD17.0%+1.0
  • Linke17.0%±0
  • AfD16.0%+1.0
  • Grüne14.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%-1.0
  • FDP3.0%-1.0
  • Others7.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Oct 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 22.0%, followed by SPD on 17.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 7 to 14 Jan 2026, method Online, commissioned by NIUS.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Oct 2025, CDU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has SPD 4.0 points higher and Linke 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Jan 2026. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • SPD +4.0average 13.0
  • Linke -1.5average 18.5
  • Grüne -1.5average 15.5
  • CDU -0.5average 22.5
  • BSW -0.5average 4.5
  • AfD ±0average 16.0
  • FDP ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

130 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.

CDU: 33 seatsSPD: 26 seatsLinke: 26 seatsAfD: 24 seatsGrüne: 21 seatsMajority from 66130of 130 seats
  • CDU33
  • SPD26
  • Linke26
  • AfD24
  • Grüne21
  • CDU + SPD + Linke85 of 130
  • CDU + SPD + AfD83 of 130
  • CDU + Linke + AfD83 of 130
  • CDU + SPD + Grüne80 of 130
  • CDU + Linke + Grüne80 of 130
  • CDU + AfD + Grüne78 of 130
  • SPD + Linke + AfD76 of 130
  • SPD + Linke + Grüne73 of 130
  • SPD + AfD + Grüne71 of 130
  • Linke + AfD + Grüne71 of 130
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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