INSA poll of 30 January 2024 for the Berlin state election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 22 to 29 Jan 2024
- Respondents
- 1,000
- Method
- Online
- CDU29.0%+3.0
- Grüne17.0%-1.0
- SPD16.0%-1.0
- AfD13.0%-1.0
- Linke10.0%±0
- FDP4.0%-1.0
- Others11.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Sep 2023.
In this poll INSA has CDU ahead on 29.0%, followed by Grüne on 17.0%. 1,000 people were surveyed from 22 to 29 Jan 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Sep 2023, CDU gains 3.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points, SPD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.5 points lower and CDU 2.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 120-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jan 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD -2.5average 15.5
- CDU +2.2average 26.8
- Linke -1.8average 11.8
- Grüne -0.8average 17.8
- SPD +0.5average 15.5
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
130 seats by Hare/Niemeyer, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning a constituency.
- CDU44
- Grüne26
- SPD25
- AfD20
- Linke15
- CDU + Grüne70 of 130
- CDU + SPD69 of 130
- CDU + AfD + Linke79 of 130
- Grüne + SPD + AfD71 of 130
- Grüne + SPD + Linke66 of 130
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.