Single poll

INSA poll of 5 December 2023 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
1 to 4 Dec 2023
Respondents
2,006
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU29.5%-0.5
  • AfD22.5%+0.5
  • SPD15.5%-0.5
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • FDP6.0%±0
  • Linke3.5%+0.5
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Others7.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Dec 2023.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.5%, followed by AfD on 22.5%. 2,006 people were surveyed from 1 to 4 Dec 2023, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Dec 2023, no party moves by more than one point.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Dec 2023. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.6average 14.6
  • AfD +1.1average 21.4
  • FDP +0.7average 5.3
  • Linke -0.6average 4.1
  • CDU/CSU -0.5average 30.0
  • SPD -0.1average 15.6
  • Freie Wähler ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 214 seatsAfD: 164 seatsSPD: 113 seatsGrüne: 95 seatsFDP: 44 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU214
  • AfD164
  • SPD113
  • Grüne95
  • FDP44
  • CDU/CSU + AfD378 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD327 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP353 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + FDP321 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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