Italy election forecast 2027: who is ahead?
General election in Italy, expected 2027. Polls as of 5 November 2026, 14 pollsters. FdI leads with 27.6%. Polls are not a prediction but the mood today; a lot can shift before the election.
If the general election were held today
Average of the latest poll from each pollster within the last 30 days, compared with the result of the general election 2022.
- FdI27.6%+1.6
- PD21.1%+2.0
- M5S13.1%-2.3
- FI7.2%-0.9
- AVS6.9%+3.3
- Lega5.7%-3.1
- Azione3.4%
- IV2.4%
- +Europa1.5%-1.3
- NM1.2%+0.3
- Others10.1%+2.6
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 3%. Lighter area: statistical margin of error of a single poll. Change compared with the election result of 25 Sep 2022.
What has shifted since the last election
What this forecast can and cannot do
For Germany we have calculated how far polling averages were off depending on the distance to the election: two years out a good four points per party on average, one week out a good one and a half. For Italy we do not have this history yet; the order of magnitude is likely to be similar. The analysis for Germany shows the table.
Polls: Wikipedia authors, article "Opinion polling for the next Italian general election" (CC BY-SA 4.0). Election result: Ministero dell'Interno, Eligendo, Camera 2022. Calculations: wahlergebnisse.io.